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We Don’t Need Their Scum

We Don’t Need Their Scum

or:   How I learned to stop worrying and love the bounty.             *****   This is actually a repost of a blog I made earlier this year that somehow got lost in the innerwebz during the transition to teammoshman.com.  Rather than just do a simple repost of the initial blog, I decided to try something a little different with it.   So, below is the original blog post as it was written (with a few minor corrections that were bugging me) and you can see my little experimentation by hitting play.   *****   I was browsing the TM forum the other day when I saw that someone had asked a question regarding the effect of the KO bounty in the KO SnG’s on Stars and if he needed to adjust his strategy when playing KO’s vs regular SnG’s.   I quickly replied that the short answer was yes.  The bounty for the KO gives stacks that cover you more incentive to call and thus they SHOULD be calling you wider.  This also implies that you should tend to call a little wider as well when you have someone covered.  But the extent of my thinking had been “If it’s close, call because of the bounty”.   That changed when another poster asked, “how does the bounty change your EQ of the tournament?  because winning a KO in the early phase is not the same that winning it on the bubble.”   Crap.  Now I have to think.  *sighs*   Then it dawned on me that someone probably has already done the heaving lifting in how to model the effect of the bounty.   TO THE CLOUD!                     Sure enough some had worked out how to figure out the equity.  Like my personal hero always says:                           So, with a big ole tip of the hat to statmanhal over at =4, we’re going to take a look at the effects of the bounty in a couple of scenarios and see what we can see about the effect on the bounty.   Case 1:   It’s the first hand of a $5.50 non-turbo SnG ($5 to the prize pool and $.50 rake) and you’re in the BB.  Blinds are at 10/20 and it’s folded to the SB who open shoves for 1500 chips.   Now let’s assume that the SB is someone that we are friendly with and frequently discuss strategy.  He’s a cheeky little monkey with a strong sense of whimsy and has told us that if the...

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Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.

Cross posted at teammoshman.com   *******   A while back my best friend that I’ve never met introduced me to one of his favorite poker bloggers.  If you don’t have Poker Grump in your RSS feed, do yourself a favor and add him immediately.   The Grump quickly became one of my favorite poker bloggers.   Reading one his posts last night gave me one of those “Dang, I wish I would have thought of that” moments.   I highly recommend that you actually click the link and read the encounter in his words, but I’ll give you the Cliff’s Notes.   While playing live at the MGM, he had to step away from the table for a moment and post the blinds when he came back.  The flop came K68 with the 6 and the 8 being spades.  He called the button bet with top pair no kicker and was watching the button for a reaction on the turn card when the dealer swept the cards up and was ready to move to the next hand.  The players managed to stop him before he got too far, but the dealer apparently could not remember what the flop had been.   In a moment that can only be described as sheer brilliance, the Grump spits out that the flop had been the 8 and 6 of spades and a king, but that he didn’t recall which one but thought that it was red and wasn’t a spade.   I actually giggled while reading that.  It was a perfect setup for representing the flush if a third spade hit.  Now he just had to hope that his opponent was aware enough to pick up on that and that he wasn’t on a real flush draw.   Sure enough, the turn comes the 4 of spades.  The Grump also got bonus points from me for punctuating it with a The Big Bang Theory reference.   He ended up taking down the pot with a check-raise on the turn.   Now since most of us play online, this is an exact situation that is NEVER going to occur, and if we play live it’s only slightly more likely to happen.  But we can learn a couple of things from this experience.   1)      Pay attention.   We can never be certain of when good opportunities can and will arise.  The game of poker can move pretty fast. If you’re not paying attention, you might just miss it.   2)      Be prepared   Channel your inner Boy Scout and be prepared.  When those opportunities do arise we have to be ready to act upon them.  Otherwise, what’s the point of...

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But I have…………

Originally posted at teammoshman.com ******* We’ve all seen it.  Heck, we’ve all done it. We look down at our cards and say, “But I have ____” and then proceed to do something stupid given the situation. “But I had AK…” “But I had Jacks…” “But they were soooted…” If poker was a static game we could get away with thoughts like these. However poker is not and thinking like this can cost you money. Lots of it. We often don’t properly take into account the situation that we are presented with at the time we need to make a decision. While it’s important to properly analyze the situation in all forms of poker, in Double or Nothings it can be everything.  There are times when you can push any two in a certain spot.  But change one little thing and folding Queens might be the correct play. There’s a routine I run through, while playing Double or Nothings, before each hand that helps me with in those situation and helps me make the correct play. 1)      What’s my chip position? a.       If the tourney ended right now, would I cash? 2)      Do I need more chips to survive this match? 3)      How likely is it that players will donk off before I NEED to make a move? a.       How much Donkquity do I have? i.      That the equity we have from everyone else donking off in front of us.  You can read robhimself’s blog on early DoN play to see the effect of avoiding confrontation.  The players not involved in the hand pick up almost .6% of the prize pool for simply folding their hand. 4)      Has there been any action in front of me? 5)      How likely is it that the players yet to act will fold? 6)      What’s my hand? By making the hand that I hold the last part of the thought process, it helps me focus on the entire picture before making a decision. And isn’t that what poker is all about?  Making correct decisions given the situation we’re presented...

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